Blog# 10 US Sanctions and Russia

Summary

In the mist of the Ukraine crises sanctions where slapped on, by the United States, against Russia, a few weeks have passed and the sanctions seem to be working as a deterrent. New sanctions could be imposed as early as Friday, for key allies of Putin. The current sanctions are hurting and weakening Russia’s economy. Other European allies are working to roll out new sanction in the up coming weeks. This is the US plan to help de-escalate the conflict. The United States will not provide arms to Ukraine for fear of escalating a war with Russia. President Obama said earlier this week “We don’t need a war. What we do need is a recognition that countries like Ukraine can have relationships with a whole range of their neighbors and it is not up to anybody, whether it’s Russia or the United States or anybody else, to make decisions for them.” This is said, but groups of heavily armed militants have stormed government building all over eastern Ukraine, many calling for the removal of the Ukraine interim government. Putin has some 40,000 troops along the Ukraine border and is exploiting Ukraine vulnerabilities to see what he can get away with.

Analysis

Sanctions are “working”. The Russian economy is dwindling and more sanction are on their way. But who are these sanctions really hurting? In the 2008 down turn in the US economy it was the people who suffered not the government or the wealthy. Sure there was some impact, but over all it was a burden of the people. This is what is happening in Russia, these sanction are impacting the people, not the government, not those who are in power. This isn’t the way to de-escalate a situation, if anything it will only make it worse.  Sanctions are “working” but in the wrong direction.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2014/04/16/sanctions-against-russia-for-ukraine-actions-working-and-more-may-be-on-the-way/?iid=article_sidebar

Blog #9 Donetsk

Summery

This week in the Ukraine city of Donetsk protests stormed a government building with Molotov cocktails, and transformed it what they call “The People’s Republic of Donetsk”.  They have clumsily built walls, a lack of leader or concrete plan, but the have a definite goal in mind. They want a referendum on secession from Ukraine to join Russia. The protesters have barricade themselves inside the building, they have insisted that they are peaceful, but are prepared to fight if Ukraine’s military steps in. Ukraine’s acting president has said that those who have seized the build will be trialed and prosecuted as terrorist. Russia has warned Ukraine of civil war if Ukraine uses force to stop the eastern revolts.  Donetsk is also the hometown of the ousted former Ukraine President Yankovych, whose pro-Russian government was thrown out in the February revolt.

Analysis

The revolt is spreading. The “success” in Crimea has lead to other eastern Ukraine cities revolting against the Ukraine government. Donetsk is now the new “Crimea”. They want to join Russia. The protesters stormed a building and our now barricaded inside, calling for the cities secession from Ukraine. They want to join Russia. I’m going to ask the obvious, but why not just move to Russia? When most don’t like what is going on in their place of residence they move. Why aren’t eastern Ukraine’s immigrating to Russia? There is something missing here. It would be a whole lot simpler to just move instead of revolting and seceding from Ukraine, so why aren’t they? 

http://www.cnn.com/2014/04/08/world/europe/ukraine-donetsk-protesters-walsh/index.html?iid=article_sidebar

Blog #8 Crimea is No Longer the Problem

Summary

The annexation of Crimea is no longer the center of the Ukraine’s crisis. It seems as if Vladimir Putin has closed the sale on Crimea. Instead the worlds efforts are focused immediately on the gathering Russian military troops, by the thousands, at Ukraine’s eastern borders. World leaders are too distracted with the potential armed conflict to focus on reversing Crimea’s annexation. Russia claims only to be practicing military exercise with a few thousand troops, while many regions say that Russia has a little as 33,000 troops and as many as 80,000, a far cry from a few. The Ukraine crises arises form the dissolving of the soviet union nearly two decades ago. Ukraine’s populations is deeply divided from a densely Russian population in the east, to a more ethnically Ukraine population in the west that includes Kiev, Ukraine’s Capital. During the protests early this year, Russia claimed that the Crimea population was at risk and need their protection. They invaded Crimea, taking over military bases and governmental operations. The protests ended. They have not left. Crimea’s Annexation is now complete and Putin has announced that Russia will take action to protect ethnic Russians from alleged attacks elsewhere. As troops gather near the borders, we must wonder, where is elsewhere? And where does it end?

Analysis

Is this a trap? It feels like a trap. The annexation of Crimea has been finalized and Russia is mounting on it borders as if it is about to spring. Russia has Crimea, could it be that they are distracting the world long enough to forget that they took Crimea? Or causing enough uproar that we would be glad to let them take Crimea if they would just stop? Either one seems like it possibly a part of a larger plan. To what extent does Putin mean, “to protect ethnic Russians”? Does he mean the immediate countries surrounding Russia, the former Soviet Union? Could he possibly be talking about the content of Europe or the world? Yes that is a far reach, but due to global immigration there are ethnic Russia’s on every continent. Russia’s intentions are not clear and are purposely vague. The west is failing to respond appropriately due to this. Scrambling to respond to the immediate threat, while Russia is already a step a head. Russia is not stupid. They may be a few years behind on the technological and economic scale, but they are not stupid. Yep, this is definitely a trap. 

http://www.cnn.com/2014/03/31/politics/crimea-explainer/index.html?iid=article_si

Blog #7 Russia Places 40,000 Troops Near Ukraine's Border

Summery

 An estimated 40,000 Russian troops are near Ukraine’s borders under the guise of “Military Exercises”. “It may simply be an effort to intimidate Ukraine, or it may be that they've got additional plans.” President Obama addressed earlier this week. Many believe that the Russian President Vladimir Putin still grieves for the dissipation of the Soviet Union in 1991, and that instead of moving forward and intergrading into the world economy. Putin feels that the west is taking advantage of Russia. President Obama pleaded  to de-escalated the situation, asking Russia to pull back troops and begging negotiation with the Ukraine government as well as the national community directly. Russia’s actions in Ukraine have been widely condemned by the west and have raised concern for other former soviet states that further action will follow.

Analysis

As the tension rise between Ukraine, Russia, and the West, a question arises, what do we do next? Russia is strong-arming Ukraine into submission, breaking international law. While the west is scolding Russia actions and telling them to back down, they are not taking any real physical action. Russia is not backing down and it is only potently making matters worse. In a sense Russia is testing the waters to see what they can get away with. As of right now they have Crimea and are potentially lining up to take the rest of Ukraine. What does the west do? Do we sit and watch while another country is invade and taken, or do we fight for them? Slapping Russia with sections will only do so much; do we take on the cost of another war? Can we morally sit back and watch this? What will Russia do next if they succeed in this?  Is it really our problem? Yes, it is, because in this is the over shadowing truth that no one fears America anymore.

http://www.cnn.com/2014/03/28/world/europe/ukraine-crisis/index.html?hpt=wo_c1

Blog #6 Trade Deal Signed as Russia Moves In

Summary

This week Ukraine signed the trade pact with the European union. This is the same deal that denial last November caused the out cry and protest that lead to riots in February and the current stand off between Ukraine and Russia. Also this week Russian lawmaker finalized the annexation of the Crimea region and its accession to Russia. This trade deal was to symbolize closer ties with Europe, by signing it the prime minster of Ukraine is signaling solidarity with Europe and the west. This is the biggest is crisis in Eastern western relations since the Cold War. The US has slapped sanctions on Russian officials. Though they have just been put into effect the sections have already started effect the Russian Market, from paying more to barrow money, to oil and gas reserves. With the West backing Ukraine and Russia pushing forward and ignoring international law a peaceful resolution seems further and further away.

Analysis

The trade deal is signed. This should end all the Ukraine and Russia conflict right? No. Though the trade deal was the cause of uprisings and protests, it is no longer the “real” problem. The disagreement of the trade deal uncovered the differences of opinion in the direction in which Ukraine citizens want to go in Ukraine’s future. Some want closer ties to Europe i.e. the trade deal, while others want closer ties with Russia. The Crimea region has a dense population of Russia supports and wants to return to Russia. Crimea is calling itself an independent state, but is only recognized by Russia, but not Ukraine or any other country. The closest comparison is American Revolutionary War. In a sense Crimea is the same place America was a few hundred years ago. We are Crimea and Crimea is us, to a certain extent. If history repeats itself, a possibly revolutionary war is mounting.   

http://www.cnn.com/2014/03/21/world/europe/ukraine-crisis/index.html?hpt=hp_t2